He was cautious a year ago about investment, exports and government three of the five elements that make up TEA, the other two being consumption and imports but by the end of the year, government spending was the only area of caution. Dieli uses a tool called the Enhanced Aggregate Spread to help him forecast market conditions.
At the end of the third quarter of 2017 (the latest period for which figures are available), all areas of TEA have shown growth, aided by truckable investment and truckable exports, but truckable consumption was the true driver of the growth.
He expects this to continue with employment continuing to rise. Looking forward, Dieli said TEA is continuing to follow the path normally associated with the expansion phases of the economic cycle. Dielis forecast model shows that for 2018, the expansion will continue and TEA growth will remain positive. The drag seems likely to persist this year.
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